Thursday, February 18, 2010

Zillow: Homeowner Confidence Shrinking

GSIG LLC

Homeowners in the South Florida are finally coming to grips with the fact that their homes are not worth what they would like them to be. However, according to the Zillow Q4 Homeowner Confidence Survey, the same cannot be said for their level of optimism about the future.

According to this survey, 49% of homeowners in South Florida believe their home's value decreased this past year. That number is up from 45% in the previous quarter.

Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist, states:

"Homeowners are finally succumbing to the notion that, in most areas, declining home values over the past year are no longer the exception, they are the rule."

According to this survey, 30%of homeowners in the South believe their home values stayed the same, while 21% believe they increased. However, in reality, just 7% of the homes in South Florida saw their value remain the same. On the flipside, 29% of the homes in South Florida actually increased in value.

When it comes to predicting the future, 13% of homeowners in South Florida felt their home's value would fall even more in the next six months, 49% believe it will stay the same and 38% believe the value will increase.

Nationwide, homeowners confidence during the fourth quarter fell to the lowest level in seven quarters, with just 20% believing their home's value actually rose. However, in reality, 28% of homes increased in value. 50% of homeowners nationwide said their home's value fell. Whereas, 65% of all homes nationwide lost their value.

38% of Americans believe their homes value will increase in the next six months, while 47% believe it will stay the same and 14% see it falling even further.

Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist, said that given the positive news that's been reported about the real estate market, he saw reasons for that optimism.

"Almost three times as many people believe their home's value will increase over the next six months as believe it will decrease in value, a level of optimism that is likely to outpace actually performance in the near term."

Last week, Florida Realtors reported sales of single-family homes and condos were up in the fourth quarter in all Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, as well as across Florida.

Still, prices remain low, with the median sales price for an existing home in Florida at $140,000 in the fourth quarter, down 13% from a year ago, when it was $160,600.

"Home values in many markets are still under substantial downward pressure from high levels of foreclosures, and we don't believe we'll see a definitive bottom nationally until the second quarter of this year," Humphries said. "We're not out of the woods yet."

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